Will Republicans’ Trumpism lead to a Blue Tsunami in the Senate in 2020?

Regardless of which side of the impeachment debate you fall on, two things have become abundantly clear as we watch the Senate trial of Donald J. Trump: conservative relativism has become the official dogma of Republicans, and the party has literally been bought and paid for by the life-long Democrat with an “R” after his name.

Yes. Literally. Right, Mitch McConnell?

Despite the GOP’s obvious embrace of Trumpism in a desperate attempt to resurrect the party that died when it let God choose its candidate in 2016 — for the uninitiated, that’s called sarcasm — every indication since November 2016 has shown that Rick Wilson was right when he wrote Everything Trump Touches Dies (#ETTD).

Ever since Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton and squeaked out an electoral college win by 77,744 total votes in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, the Republican Party has been losing . . . BIGLY!

Beginning with a series of special elections after Trump’s inauguration, his weakness as the leader of the Republican Party was obvious to all and served as an accurate predictor of the Blue Tsunami awaiting Trumpist Republicans in the 2018 midterms.

In that 2018 election, Trump not only handed Democrats their largest midterm victory in the House since Watergate, he also gave Barack Obama more election victories at the state level than he had, helping his predecessor move closer to his goal of fundamentally transforming America.

Democrats flipped seven gubernatorial offices in 2018, giving the party the “trifecta of power” (control of the governor’s office and both legislative chambers) in six new states while breaking up Republican trifectas in four states. Before the 2018 midterms, Republicans held the trifecta in 26 states; Democrats held 7; and 17 were divided. Post-election, these numbers were: Republicans 21, Democrats 14, and 13 divided.

In 2019, Republicans lost two more governorships as Democrats flipped Kentucky while they held on to win re-election in a runoff in Louisiana: states won by Trump by 30 percent and 20 percent respectfully.

In a North Carolina special election for the U.S. Senate in 2019, the Republican Party squeaked out a win, but I wondered afterwards if their narrow victory might be a precursor to a Blue Tsunami 2.0 in 2020, with Democrats flipping the Senate.

Based on current data, this theory could become a reality because Republicans are already close to losing Colorado, Arizona, and Georgia — with Maine and North Carolina easily within striking distance.

For those members of the cult already writing this article off as fake news, the hard numbers don’t lie. When Trump took office:

  • Republicans controlled the House of Representatives 241–194; today the Democrats control it 232–197
  • Republicans controlled the governors’ office 23–16; today, it’s nearly even at 26–24
  • Republicans enjoyed a 15 percent advantage nationwide in state legislatures; today, it’s only 5 percent.

Despite the rainbows and unicorns outlook we continue to get from Trump and the GOP, things aren’t looking too good for Trumpists in November.


David Leach is the owner of the Strident Conservative.

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