For those who refuse to accept the likelihood that Donald Trump will be impeached following the November elections after the Democrats retake the House, a new report released yesterday isn’t going to be very comforting.
RED WAVE!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 8, 2018
Sure, Donald Trump is predicting a Red Wave and bragging about his so-called successes in places like Ohio-12—the special election between Republican Troy Balderson and Democrat Danny O’Connor is still too close to call—but a look at the hard data behind this season’s special elections shows that Democrats stand a better than 50/50 chance of retaking the House in November, and doing so convincingly.
The non-partisan Cook Political Report said yesterday that Democrats have outperformed expectations in 9 House Special Elections this cycle by an average of 8 percent.
Now *final:* Dems overperformed @CookPolitical PVI by an average of 8% in this cycle's 9 House specials where both parties appeared on the final ballot. pic.twitter.com/xJTbCBsnaG
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 9, 2018
To get an idea on what that could look like in November, if Democrats performed at that level in all 435 Congressional districts, they’d pick up 81 House seats. Of course, as David Wasserman, Cook’s analyst on House races, points out, that’s not likely to happen because not every district is a toss-up, thanks to the power of incumbency.
To give you an idea: if Dems were to overperform PVI by 8% in all 435 districts this November (won't happen b/c of R incumbency, etc.), they'd pick up 81 House seats – more than triple the 23 they need.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 9, 2018
However, Democrats only need 23 seats to retake the House, and since 37 Republicans are choosing not to seek re-election, there are enough open seats to make incumbency irrelevant.
In an article I wrote in February, I documented how special elections at the state level painted a gloomy picture for the GOP this election season. After a string of Democrat victories since November 2016, House Speaker Paul Ryan reached the same conclusion, and it’s only grown worse since February.
The reasons the Republicans face a Blue Tsunami are plain for all to see. Besides the usual midterm struggles experienced by the party occupying the White House, Trump and the GOP have broken nearly every promise they made to conservatives when they begged us to give them control of Washington, such as: repealing Obamacare, defunding Planned Parenthood, controlling spending, and fixing immigration.
To make matters worse, Trump continues to carry historically low job-approval numbers, and his Twitter rants, trade war, and weak moral character only serve to drive them lower.
In a nutshell, the Republicans have betrayed conservatives and our values, giving voters no reason to show up and support them at the polls. When you take this reality and add it to a fired-up Democrat party dedicated to retaking the House and impeaching Trump, the outcome in November is inevitable.
David Leach is the owner of The Strident Conservative. His politically incorrect and always “right” columns are also featured on NOQReport.com, and TheResurgent.com Community.
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